Market Remains Strong During the Russian War

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2022-05-12 13:53:25

Market situation

Bitcoin price has returned and continues to fluctuate around $38,000 to $39,000. Altcoins mostly follow the Bitcoin trend.

US stocks fell sharply when Russia officially attacked Ukraine, but the day before, it rose sharply again. And oil prices have cooled down but are still high above 90 USD/barrel.

On-chain data shows that BTC was profitable at 69% when the price rallied to nearly $39,000. The main trend of BTC on exchanges continues to decline.

And ETH tends to be deposited on the exchange more than withdrawn from the exchange since February 12 until now.

War broke out and many US investors thought that the Fed would raise interest rates more slowly and gradually. So they are also more optimistic about the situation and this could be one reason why stocks rose yesterday.

Effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war

And the effects of the war on stocks have negative effects in the short term. Looking back at the history of stock movements during the wars, most things scared investors and prices fell. However, most of the time after the war ended, the stock market recovered and grew. The long-term trend of the market is still an uptrend.

Even the covid-19 pandemic is no exception. The outbreak in March 2020 caused US stocks as well as most assets to plummet. But so far, assets have gradually recovered and grown. Looking back at history we can predict the market reaction. Although different events or wars happened in the past, the decisive point is still the same investor psychology in the market.

Economically, a coordinated move to sanction Russia is designed to effectively remove Russia’s biggest banks and companies from Western financial markets. This will cause great damage to Russian banks and businesses. Notably, the measures do not target the SWIFT international payment system nor the Russian energy sector. SWIFT is an independent business based in Belgium that acts as an internal messaging system between more than 11,000 banks and financial institutions in more than 200 countries and territories. The exclusion of a country from SWIFT means that key banks are excluded from much of the global financial system.

Some have questioned whether they can successfully stop Putin. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on world leaders to introduce tougher economic measures. However, the US still has to consider and avoid the imposition of economic sanctions, the highest is to exclude Russia from the SWIFT network. At the same time, many people also question the effectiveness of economic sanctions against Russia. Currently, Russia still has support from a large country that is China, so many people believe that economic sanctions are not effective for President Putin.

During the outbreak of war, the NGO Come Back Alive was founded in 2014, when armed conflict broke out between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists. The organization has called for donations to provide armor and medical equipment to Ukrainian fighters. Come Back Alive director Taras Chmut told CNBC that more than $300,000 was raised in the hours after Russia invaded Ukraine.

However, this donation was called through the Patreon platform. The platform quickly deleted the NGO’s page and wrote a blog post reiterating that the platform is not “used to fund arms or military operations”.

After that, the Come Back Alive organization received a direct donation in Bitcoin. The total quickly reached $4 million in donations, and by now the number is higher. Bitcoin helped Ukraine get support without being blocked by centralized institutions. The Ukrainian government has received more than 10 million USD in donations from cryptocurrencies. The total amount of crypto donations to the Ukrainian government and NGOs supporting the military currently stands at $16.7 million, Elliptic said.

Some people who don’t like BTC take advantage of this to comment negatively on Bitcoin. Fair to comment can see, mainly frauds and crimes are through cash (fiat currency). To date, the evidence still shows that illegality through USD is the majority and there is no data to prove that the crime mainly comes from using BTC. Bitcoin or even the Internet is just a tool. The bad thing is because the user uses it for bad purposes.

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